UTEP Report Shows Optimistic Outlook for Mexican Economy

Expert panelists predict that Mexico’s economy will see continued growth in various areas through 2012, according to the latest Consensus Economic Forecast report for Mexico released this week by the Border Region Modeling Project at The University of Texas at El Paso. 

“The panel members have a marginally more optimistic forecast for economic activity for 2012,” said Tom Fullerton, Ph.D., associate professor of economics.  “The bulk of that improvement is related to higher private and government consumption forecasts.” 

The report stems from a survey of economists from public, private and academic sectors who actively follow Mexico’s economic performance. According to the survey, all eight panelists project that Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 3.5 percent or more this year.  Although that rate of growth is fairly robust, consumer prices are expected to increase by a relatively moderate 3.9 percent in 2012. 

In a hotly contested presidential election year with the election less than two weeks away, Mexico’s economic stability is in the spotlight. However, Fullerton explained that none of the panelists anticipate “any type of severe disruption such as those that were observed during prior electoral cycles.” 

Despite the substantial depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar during the past six weeks, Fullerton said the panelists anticipate that most of the currency market jitters have passed. Because of that, the peso is likely to appreciate during the second semester this year and hold steady against the dollar in 2013. 

Information: Tom Fullerton, 915-747-7477, or Adam Walke, 915-747-7775

Download the report here.